Housing Sales Outlook Diverges... The Variable in the Second Half Is Tax Policy

According to a report released by KB Financial Group Management Research Institute, real estate experts and licensed real estate agents had differing opinions on this year's nationwide housing sales price outlook. In the April survey, 56% of experts expected an increase, while 54% of licensed real estate agents expected a decline. This survey result marks a significant shift in sentiment compared with January. At that time, both experts and licensed real estate agents were predominantly forecasting price increases, but recently, as the suspension of the heavy capital gains tax on multihomeowners is set to end and the possibility of tax hikes in the second half of the year has come into focus, the likelihood of a correction has been assessed as greater. In the jeonse market, both sides mostly expected prices to rise. The designation of land transaction permit zones in Seoul and some parts of the metropolitan area has made gap investment difficult, and high jeonse deposits and the increase in conversions to monthly rent were cited as factors pushing up jeonse prices. The report identified real estate tax policy as the biggest variable for the housing market in the second half of the year, and stated that the metropolitan area may stabilize between the second half of next year and 2027, while recovery in nonmetropolitan areas is expected after that.