Inflation outlook eases as energy prices fall, Kalshi traders say
Kalshi traders see U.S. inflation peaking as energy prices ease and CPI cools. Track the latest odds, oil-driven shifts, and what the July 14 report could bring.
Kalshi traders are signaling that U.S. inflation may have peaked in May, as lower energy prices reshape expectations for the rest of 2026.
The CNBC report says traders on the prediction market platform put less than a 1in3 chance on headline inflation rising above 4.2% this year, which was the annual Consumer Price Index reading for May.
The shift in sentiment follows a decline in oil and gasoline prices after the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a broader easing in tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The next CPI report, covering June inflation, is scheduled for release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on July 14.