Kalshi traders expect a softer July jobs report than economists forecast

Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi are leaning toward a weakerthanexpected U.S. jobs report for July, according to contracts tied to the Bureau of Labor Statistics release due Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect payrolls to rise by 85,000 in July. On Kalshi, traders see a 47% chance that job gains exceeded 80,000, while assigning a 60% chance that the total topped 70,000. The market also suggests mixed expectations for the broader range of outcomes: traders put a 41% chance on payroll growth above 90,000 and roughly a oneinthree chance that the number falls below 60,000. In June, Kalshi traders had expected a stronger report than the official result, which later showed just 57,000 jobs added.