Kalshi traders see a more united Fed at Warsh’s first meeting

Prediction market traders expect the Federal Reserve to present a more unified vote at Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting as chair, according to Kalshi pricing on Wednesday. Kalshi traders assigned a 70% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee would record no dissents in June, compared with April’s meeting, which had four dissents, the most since 1992. The Fed was widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% as policymakers weighed the impact of higher inflation linked to rising oil prices. The article also noted that Bank of America’s June Global Fund Manager Survey found 55% of respondents expected a “hawkish hold,” meaning rates would stay steady while policymakers keep a cautious stance on inflation and future cuts. Traders further expected Warsh to emphasize uncertainty in his first press conference and to mention quantitative tightening, while seeing a lower likelihood that he would refer to President Donald Trump by name.