House control may depend on whether old midterm patterns still hold

Control of the U.S. House in the upcoming midterms could come down to whether familiar election patterns still apply in a more unpredictable political environment. The article argues that traditional midterm dynamics would normally favor Democrats because the president’s party often loses seats in the first midterm. It points to concerns about the economy, the war in Iran, trade tensions and President Donald Trump’s approval ratings as factors that could hurt Republicans. At the same time, it says recent politics have been unusually unstable, with weakened norms, contested election narratives and redistricting battles affecting several battleground districts. The piece highlights races in states such as Missouri, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia and Maine as examples of how small changes could decide the balance of power.