Prediction market traders see August U.S. job growth rebounding
U.S. jobs report odds point to August hiring recovery after July payroll losses See what Kalshi and Polymarket traders expect before Friday’s BLS release
Traders on prediction market platforms expect U.S. hiring to improve in August after July payrolls unexpectedly showed job losses. The article says odds on Kalshi are roughly split on whether the economy added more than 50,000 jobs last month, while Polymarket traders put the chance at 48%.
The outlook is slightly below the Dow Jones economists' consensus estimate of 53,000 jobs created in August. Contracts on these platforms are settled using official Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
The report notes that traders and economists have recently overestimated payroll growth for two straight months. The August jobs report is scheduled for Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.