Russia Reportedly Preparing Hybrid Provocations on NATO's Eastern Flank

Latvian intelligence says Russia may be preparing hybrid provocations against Baltic states or Poland to pressure NATO countries to reduce support for Ukraine. The warning focuses on drones, missiles, cyberattacks, and other actions meant to signal deterrence rather than a conventional war. According to the report, the main concern is not an immediate fullscale invasion, but a possible miscalculation by President Vladimir Putin and his inner circle. Latvian officials say Russia's institutions may be giving him overly optimistic assessments, increasing the risk of poor decisions. The assessment also says Western sanctions are affecting Russia's finances and war capacity, even as Moscow publicly claims otherwise. Latvia's intelligence service argues that continued sanctions and international pressure remain important while Russia continues its hybrid campaign and legal efforts to shape the narrative around the war in Ukraine.