IEA cuts oil supply forecast as Middle East conflict strains refining
IEA oil outlook cuts supply and demand as war strains global energy markets See why shrinking inventories and tight refineries could push prices higher
The International Energy Agency has lowered its outlook for global oil supply and demand, saying the market is under pressure as wars in Iran and Ukraine continue to disrupt energy flows.
In its monthly report, the agency said global oil supply is now expected to fall by 5.7 million barrels per day in 2026, a bigger decline than it had forecast in August. It also said demand is likely to drop by 2.5 million barrels per day this year, reflecting weaker market conditions than previously expected.
The IEA warned that inventories are shrinking and refineries are operating near capacity, which could leave the market tighter if conflicts in the Middle East and the RussiaUkraine war continue to limit supply and delay a wider recovery.