Traders See Higher U.S. Gas Prices in 2026
Gas prices could hit new highs in 2026 as oil stays elevated See Kalshi odds on $4.60, $4.80, and $5.00 gasoline levels
Prediction market traders are increasingly betting that U.S. gas prices will climb to new highs in 2026 as oil prices remain elevated. On Kalshi, contracts tied to AAA's national gasoline average show a 71% chance the price will rise above $4.60 per gallon next year.
The market also assigns a 57% chance that prices will exceed $4.80 and a little more than a 40% chance they will top $5.00. Gas prices reached $4.56 per gallon in May, while the national average last set a record above $5 in June 2022.
The outlook has shifted as oil prices have moved back above $100 a barrel amid rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Traders are also pricing in a 5050 chance that gas prices will stay above $4.25 per gallon on election day in November.