BIS study finds large gaps in Bitcoin onchain transfer estimates

A Bank for International Settlements study says widely used blockchain metrics can overstate or obscure crypto activity, with Bitcoin transfer estimates varying sharply depending on how transactions are counted. The researchers found that Bitcoin onchain transfer values can differ by as much as six times across measurement methods. The gap is mainly tied to how change outputs and other senderlinked transfers are treated, since these can look like new transfers even when funds are returned to the original user. The study also said Bitcoin market capitalization can appear much larger than realized capitalization at times, and that similar measurement issues affect Ethereum and stablecoins. The researchers concluded that onchain indicators should be seen as noisy estimates of economic activity rather than precise measures.