Carney's comments on possible U.S. invasion highlight contingency planning
Canada defense planning weighs extreme tail risks after Trump threats to Canada Officials keep contingency plans updated as analysts assess unlikely security risks
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s remarks about the possibility of U.S. military action against Canada have drawn attention to how governments and militaries prepare for extreme, lowprobability risks.
In an analysis published by CBC News, Carney said he had considered what he described as an “extreme tail risk” in response to President Donald Trump’s repeated threats and rhetoric about Canada becoming the 51st state. Defence Minister David McGuinty said such risk analysis is normal and declined to discuss details of any planning.
The article says Canada’s defence officials keep longstanding contingency plans that are updated when world events change. Former senior defence officials said those plans would likely have been reviewed after Trump’s reelection and again as his administration escalated comments about Canada and other allies. Analysts and lawmakers cited in the story said the comments reflect strained CanadaU.S. relations and the duty of leaders to assess security risks, even unlikely ones.