Democrats Slightly Favored in Senate Prediction Markets

Prediction market traders now give Democrats a narrow edge in the fight for control of the U.S. Senate, though the race remains close. On Kalshi, Democrats are assigned a 55% chance of winning the chamber, while Polymarket places the odds at 59%. Republicans are defending 22 of the 35 Senate seats on the ballot this year, including special elections in Ohio and Florida. Democrats would need to win several competitive races in states that backed Donald Trump by wide margins in 2024, including Alaska, Texas and Ohio, to flip the Senate. The article says Democrats' odds improved earlier in the year and rose after the Iran war began, as higher fuel prices and weaker approval ratings affected Republican prospects. More recent polls have also shown a more favorable environment for Democrats heading into November.