Prediction market traders expect stronger September U.S. jobs report
U.S. payrolls forecast: prediction markets price stronger September job gains See what Kalshi and Polymarket signal before the BLS jobs report Friday
Traders on prediction markets are expecting the U.S. labor market to add more jobs in September than economists forecast, according to contracts on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
The market pricing suggests nearly a 60% chance that September payrolls rose by more than 90,000, while the odds of a gain above 100,000 are close to even. That is above the Dow Jones economist consensus estimate of 84,000 jobs.
The report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled for Friday morning. Before that, ADP will release its private payrolls report on Wednesday. The article also notes that August employment growth was stronger than expected, while inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target.