Kalshi traders see Hormuz traffic normalizing no earlier than 2027
Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic recovery slows as traders price in fresh risk See why Kalshi now sees normal volumes delayed and what it means for markets
Traders on Kalshi are now pricing in a slower recovery for shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after fresh tensions in the region.
The forecast shifted after President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was “over” following U.S. strikes and reported attacks on commercial vessels. Kalshi traders now see only a 43% chance that traffic returns to normal by Dec. 1, while the earliest date with a majority view is Jan. 1, 2027.
Kalshi defines normal traffic as a sevenday moving average above 60 transits, based on IMF PortWatch data. Rival prediction market Polymarket is somewhat more optimistic, but still does not expect a full return to normal before the end of 2026.