OpenAI maps AI job transition risks across the EU

OpenAI Economic Research has released a new report extending its AI Jobs Transition Framework to the European Union. The analysis uses Eurostat employment data and the EU’s ESCO occupational taxonomy to assess how AI capabilities could affect different jobs across member states. The report groups occupations into four categories: roles that may grow with AI, roles with higher nearterm automation potential, roles likely to reorganize, and roles with less immediate change. OpenAI says these are not forecasts, but a planning tool to help policymakers, employers, and educators understand where transition pressure and opportunity may emerge. The findings suggest that about 12% of EU employment is in occupations that may grow with AI, 14% is in occupations with relatively higher automation potential, 27% is likely to reorganize, and 47% faces less immediate change. The report also notes that exposure differs by country, with Luxembourg, Sweden, and the Netherlands having larger shares in occupations that may grow with AI, while Germany, Greece, and Italy have larger shares in higher automation potential roles. OpenAI says the framework could help governments and institutions improve monitoring, readiness planning, and training responses as AI adoption develops across Europe.