Kalshi Traders See Nasdaq-100 Ending 2026 Above 30,000
Nasdaq-100 odds point to a finish above 30,000 as 2026 gains cool See what Kalshi traders expect next as AI and chip stocks drive the market
Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi are putting roughly even odds on the Nasdaq100 finishing 2026 above 30,000. The index has already gained about 18% this year and was trading just under that level on Tuesday.
The article says traders are less confident the index will make a larger move higher before yearend. Contracts on Kalshi imply only a 40% chance that the Nasdaq100 will exceed 32,000 and about a 27% chance it will top 33,000 by Dec. 31.
The report notes that the index’s strong advance earlier in 2026 was driven in part by renewed investor confidence in artificial intelligence and semiconductor stocks. UBS said it expects the broader market rally to continue in the second half of the year, but that leadership may broaden beyond technology, which could limit further gains in the techheavy Nasdaq100.